Economic Indicators – March 29, 2018

    JN Fund Managers
    JN Fund Managers

    Indicator

    Period Data Year/Year YTD Chg

    Mth/Mth

    Current

    Similar Period Last Year

    Inflation Rate Feb-18 -0.10% 0.20% *4.4%
    Three Month T-Bill Avg Yield Mar-18 2.98% 6.13% -315bps -120bps -38bps
    Six Month T-Bill Avg Yield Mar-18 3.17% 6.32% -315 bps -146ps -42bps
    Interest Rate on BOJ Overnight Rate  (policy rate) Mar-18 2.75% ** 3.0%
    Weighted Average Loan Rate Jan-18 14.46% 16.12% -166bps -13bps -13bps
    Commercial Bank Loans (J$M) Jan-18 $615,825.73 $499,055.03 23.40% 0.03% 0.03%
    Current Account Deficit (US$M) July – Sept 2017 -$305.56 -$186.30
    NIR (US$M) Feb-18 $3,179.50 $2,615.26 21.57% -0.90% -0.74%
    Remittance (Inflows US$M) Aug-17 $191.60 $194.10 -1.29% -13.81% -1.74%
    FX Rate J$ : US$1 29-Mar-18 $125.99 $128.39 -1.87% 0.79% -1.69%
    Junior Market Index 29-Mar-18 2,958.51 2,990.48 -1.07% 8.29% 1.15%
    Junior Market Capitalisation (J$B) 29-Mar-18 $125.12 $119.83 4.41% 8.99% 1.18%
    JSE Main Market Index 29-Mar-18 294,533.10 223,637.99 31.70% 2.13% 0.64%
    JSE Volume Traded YTD (B units) 29-Mar-18 2.38 0.64 271.88%
    JSE Main Market Capitalisation (J$B) 29-Mar-18 $1,061.27 $789.40 34.44% 1.19% 0.64%

    ** Previous BOJ Overnight Interest Rate (policy rate) as at January 18, 2018

    For the 11-month period (April 2017 to February 2018) of the 2017/18 fiscal year, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) exceeded its primary balance target by J$21.23B to achieve a balance of J$116.77B. This was driven by tax revenues exceeding budget by 2.0% to earn J$429.12B. Corporate and PAYE taxes outperformed the budget despite the GOJ raising the tax threshold to J$1.5M in 2017, possibly highlighting improved compliance measures implemented. Non-tax revenues also outperformed its budget by 6.0% to earn J$40.73B for the period.  Conversely, the GOJ has seemingly employed less aggressive spending with total expenditure behind budget by J$15.21B supporting the large fiscal surplus of J$26.26B. This surplus is likely to fall come the end of the fiscal year 2017/2018 due to supplementary salary changes for government employees.

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